At a glance
- Waverley approaches Mozambique as a country with genuinely world-class LNG and mining resource endowments sitting inside one of the more acute combined security, political and fiscal risk environments in the region.
- Our role is to help well-capitalised, long-horizon investors engage that opportunity responsibly, with security, political and fiscal risk management built in from the outset rather than treated as a secondary consideration to the resource story.
- MINING LICENCE UNDER THE REVISED MINING CODE: Now requiring a mandatory 15% state free-carry stake in all mining ventures, with export restrictions on unprocessed and semi-processed minerals absent ministerial approval
Key risks
Waverley approaches Mozambique as a country with genuinely world-class LNG and mining resource endowments sitting inside one of the more acute combined security, political and fiscal risk environments in the region.
Our role is to help well-capitalised, long-horizon investors engage that opportunity responsibly, with security, political and fiscal risk management built in from the outset rather than treated as a secondary consideration to the resource story.
Mozambique's investment story remains anchored in LNG, but with continued delay and real near-term security risk.
Where And How To Enter
Key Investment Locations
| Location / Region | Strategic Importance | Priority Sectors |
|---|---|---|
| Maputo | Capital, financial and administrative hub | Banking, government contracts, services, port logistics |
| Afungi Peninsula, Cabo Delgado | Site of the TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG and Eni-led Coral North LNG projects | LNG production and export, oil and gas services |
| Balama, Cabo Delgado | Syrah Resources' Balama mine, among the world's largest graphite deposits | Graphite mining and processing |
| Montepuez, Cabo Delgado | Gemfields' major ruby-mining operation | Gemstone (ruby) mining |
| Moatize, Tete province | Major coal basin, formerly Rio Tinto and Vale assets | Coal mining and export logistics |
| Maputo and Nacala port corridors | Principal deep-water ports and rail corridors serving the regional (including landlocked- neighbour) trade | Port logistics, rail freight, regional transhipment |
| Beira corridor, Sofala province | Central Mozambique port and logistics corridor | Port logistics, agro-export, regional trade |
Source: Mozambique Waverley Gateway Guide, PDF page 1. Figures and dates are reproduced from the source document.
Investor Entry Routes
● Mozambique Investment Promotion Agency (APIEX) registration and facilitation
● MINING LICENCE UNDER THE REVISED MINING CODE: Now requiring a mandatory 15% state free-carry stake in all mining ventures, with export restrictions on unprocessed and semi-processed minerals absent ministerial approval
● LNG and upstream oil and gas participation via ENH (Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos) joint ventures with TotalEnergies, Eni and other operators
● LOCAL MINERAL-PROCESSING INVESTMENT: Increasingly favoured and in places required under the government's domestic-value-capture push
● Port and rail concession participation in the Maputo, Beira and Nacala corridors
● Sovereign Wealth Fund-linked co-investment structures, established under the December 2023 law to manage future LNG revenue
Market-entry Observation
Mozambique's investment story remains anchored in LNG, but with continued delay and real near-term security risk. TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project resumed progress in January 2026 after force majeure was lifted, having been suspended for four years following the 2021 jihadist attacks in Cabo Delgado, while Eni's Coral North project reached a USD 7.2 billion final investment decision in October 2025 and targets first production in 2028. Current LNG revenue remains modest relative to the long-term opportunity - around USD 76.8 million expected in 2026, continuing a decline from USD 91.8 million in 2024 - but officials project eventual LNG and gas export revenues of roughly USD 6 billion a year from the 2040s under the sovereign wealth fund framework established in December 2023.
The near-term macroeconomic picture is strained: public debt is forecast at around 101% of GDP in 2025, rising to roughly 104% in both 2026 and 2027, and is not projected to fall back below 100% until 2029. Mining policy has also tightened, with a revised code now requiring a mandatory 15% state free-carry stake in all mining ventures and restricting exports of unprocessed or semi-processed minerals without ministerial approval - a change the Chamber of Mines has publicly warned could deter foreign capital even as it pushes Mozambique toward capturing more value from its substantial graphite, ruby and coal resources.
Investor Risk & Market Access
Key Entry Barriers
| Issue | Potential Impact | Possible Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| The Cabo Delgado insurgency (Islamic State Mozambique) remains active and in places is gaining ground: as of March 2026, insurgents likely still controlled Catupa forest, with no evidence state forces had regained the area or the adjacent N380 road, and small ISM groups were moving toward Ancuabe and approaching artisanal mining sites, prompting miners to flee | Direct, ongoing threat to personnel, assets and logistics for any operation in or transiting northern Cabo Delgado, including the LNG and graphite/ruby mining sites themselves | Maintain enhanced security protocols and specialised risk-management support for any Cabo Delgado-based operation; monitor the conflict's trajectory independently rather than relying on this guide's snapshot |
| Severe post-election political violence following the disputed October 2024 presidential election, with widely reported death tolls exceeding 300 between October 2024 and January 2025, and the government's continued pursuit of prosecution against opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane over the unrest | Signals ongoing political polarisation and a risk of renewed unrest around future electoral or political flashpoints | Monitor the political situation directly; avoid any association with partisan political activity |
| Public debt forecast at approximately 101% of GDP in 2025 and rising to around 104% in 2026- 2027, not projected to fall below 100% until 2029 | Constrains government fiscal capacity for co- investment, infrastructure spending and crisis response | Treat government co-financing commitments as fiscally constrained; prioritise self-financing, DFI- backed or private-sector-led structures |
| New mandatory 15% state free-carry stake in all mining ventures and restrictions on unprocessed/semi-processed mineral exports | Directly reduces foreign-investor economics in mining relative to the prior regime, per explicit industry-body objections | Model the 15% free-carry stake and processing requirements into project economics from the outset; engage the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy directly on current terms |
| Naval security restrictions off the Cabo Delgado coast, including a 'no-sail' zone near Macomia with at least one reported incident of a vessel firing on a fishing boat | Adds logistics and compliance complexity for any coastal or maritime operation in the affected zone | Confirm current maritime security-zone boundaries and coordinate directly with naval and security authorities for coastal operations |
| Underdeveloped power, water and logistics infrastructure outside the main corridors, a constraint the Chamber of Mines specifically flags as limiting the viability of local mineral processing | Complicates compliance with new local- processing requirements for mining investors | Factor infrastructure-development needs and timelines explicitly into any local-processing- compliant mining investment |
| LNG production revenue remains well below its eventual long-term potential, with first production from newer projects (Coral North) not expected until 2028 | Near-term fiscal and economic benefits from the LNG sector remain limited relative to the headline long-term opportunity | Treat LNG-linked fiscal and economic projections as a multi-decade thesis rather than a near-term revenue driver |
Source: Mozambique Waverley Gateway Guide, PDF page 2. Figures and dates are reproduced from the source document.
Investor Risk Note
Mozambique presents one of the sharpest contrasts in this series between a genuinely transformational long-term resource opportunity and acute, current, multi-dimensional risk. The Cabo Delgado insurgency has not been resolved despite years of Mozambican, Rwandan and SADC-linked military engagement, and as of the most recent independent conflict monitoring, Islamic State Mozambique retains effective control of areas adjacent to critical LNG and mining infrastructure and has demonstrated a pattern of directly targeting mining operations. Investors in the Afungi Peninsula LNG projects or the Cabo Delgado graphite and ruby mines should treat security risk as a live, operational variable, not a historical footnote from the 2021 attacks.
This sits alongside unresolved political risk from the violently contested October 2024 election - with a death toll in the hundreds and continued government efforts to prosecute the opposition leader - and a fiscal position where public debt exceeds 100% of GDP with no return below that threshold expected before 2029. The new mining-ownership rules add a further, more conventional layer of regulatory risk specifically for the mining sector. None of this negates Mozambique's underlying resource endowment, but it does mean investors should size any commitment to the country's current risk profile rather than its long-term potential alone.
Market Access
APIEX's facilitation role and ENH's joint-venture structuring continue to provide an established channel into Mozambique's LNG sector, now moving again after TotalEnergies' force majeure was lifted, and the Maputo, Beira and Nacala corridors give Mozambique a structurally important logistics role serving both its own and neighbouring landlocked markets.
Mozambique's graphite, ruby and coal endowments are genuinely world-class by scale, and the government's push toward local processing, while adding near-term compliance complexity, aligns with a broader continental trend that could position compliant investors favourably over time.
Who Should The Investor Meet?
Institutional Landscape
| Actor | Why It Matters | Waverley Engagement Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Mozambique Investment Promotion Agency (APIEX) | Primary FDI facilitation and investment- promotion agency | Central registration and incentive-coordination contact for new entrants |
| Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) | State hydrocarbon company and LNG joint- venture partner | Central counterparty for LNG and upstream oil and gas participation |
| Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy | Mining-code administration, including the new 15% free-carry stake and export-restriction rules | Confirm current mining-sector terms and local- processing requirements |
| Government of Mozambique (President Daniel Chapo, FRELIMO) / Mozambican Armed Forces, with Rwandan and SADC-linked security support | Executive authority and the counter-insurgency response in Cabo Delgado | Monitor security and political developments directly; engage government security liaisons for any Cabo Delgado-based operation |
| Bank of Mozambique (central bank) | Monetary policy and banking supervision | Confirm current foreign-exchange and banking- sector conditions |
| Mozambique Sovereign Wealth Fund | Management of LNG-linked state revenue under the December 2023 law | Monitor as a long-term indicator of LNG revenue realisation and potential co-investment structures |
| Chamber of Mines of Mozambique | Industry body representing mining-sector interests, including public objection to the new ownership rules | Useful independent source for monitoring mining- sector regulatory sentiment |
Source: Mozambique Waverley Gateway Guide, PDF page 3. Figures and dates are reproduced from the source document.
Current International Business Channels
France (via TotalEnergies) and Italy (via Eni) anchor Mozambique's most significant current investment relationships through the LNG sector, with Rwanda a key security partner in the Cabo Delgado counter-insurgency effort alongside SADC forces. Australia (Syrah Resources) and the United Kingdom (Gemfields) are the leading investors in graphite and ruby mining respectively. China and other Asian partners maintain a growing infrastructure and trade presence, and the IMF and World Bank remain central to the broader fiscal and debt-sustainability conversation.
Investor Profile Best Suited
Mozambique is best suited to large, well-capitalised institutional investors with genuine long-horizon tolerance, specialised security- risk management capability, and existing experience operating in active-insurgency-adjacent environments - principally in LNG and major mining projects able to absorb the new 15% state free-carry stake into project economics.
It is a weaker fit for investors requiring near-term security certainty, a resolved political environment, or a sub-100%-of-GDP sovereign debt position, and is not suited to smaller or risk-averse investors without dedicated security and political-risk infrastructure.
From Intelligence To Engagement
STEP 1: Confirm the Sector and Entry Vehicle Determine whether APIEX registration, an ENH-linked LNG joint venture, or a mining licence under the revised code fits the project.
STEP 2: Engage APIEX and the Relevant Sector Body Early Open parallel conversations with APIEX and, where relevant, ENH or the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy.
STEP 3: Conduct Enhanced Security and Political-Risk Assessment This is essential for any Cabo Delgado-based or -adjacent project; monitor the insurgency and political situation independently and continuously.
STEP 4: Model the New Mining-Ownership and Fiscal Terms Build the 15% state free-carry stake, local-processing requirements and Mozambique's elevated public-debt position into project economics.
STEP 5: Launch with Contingency Planning Begin operations while maintaining continuous security monitoring and tracking the broader LNG, political and fiscal trajectory.
Waverley's Role
● Independent due-diligence and structuring advisory across APIEX, ENH and mining-licensing entry routes
● Introductions to APIEX, ENH, the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, and the Chamber of Mines
● Ongoing monitoring of the Cabo Delgado security situation, political developments, and Mozambique's fiscal and debt trajectory
● Coordination with specialised security-risk consultancies and development-finance structuring partners
Investor Call To Action
Institutional investors with genuine long-horizon capacity and dedicated security and political-risk management capability, seeking exposure to Mozambique's LNG or major mining sectors, are invited to engage Waverley for a confidential, risk-calibrated structuring consultation.
Intelligence → Risk Assessment → Structuring → Market Entry
Waverley Investor Intelligence & Opportunity Pipeline
Current pipeline items Waverley is tracking include continued progress on TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project following the lifting of force majeure; Eni's Coral North project ahead of its 2028 first-production target; graphite-sector expansion at Balama and the new USD 150-200 million graphite processing facility inaugurated in February 2026; implementation of the revised mining-ownership rules; and the trajectory of the Cabo Delgado counter-insurgency campaign as the key variable determining the pace of further LNG and mining investment.
Positioning
Waverley approaches Mozambique as a country with genuinely world-class LNG and mining resource endowments sitting inside one of the more acute combined security, political and fiscal risk environments in the region.
Our role is to help well-capitalised, long-horizon investors engage that opportunity responsibly, with security, political and fiscal risk management built in from the outset rather than treated as a secondary consideration to the resource story.
Selected Sources
● ACLED, "Mozambique Conflict Monitor Update," 11 March 2026
● Ecofin Agency, "Mozambique Sees $76.8 Million Gas Revenue in 2026 Amid Production Lag," May 2026
● Mining Weekly, "Mozambique's New Mine Ownership Rules Could Deter Foreign Investment, Industry Body Says," June
● 360 Mozambique, "IMF: State Debt to Exceed 100% of GDP Again This Year"
● AllAfrica, "Mozambique's Crisis: Two Emperors, One Uncertain Future," February 2025
About this assessment
Lord (JD) Waverley is an international trade and investment advisor, working at the intersection of business diplomacy and public policy. His work focuses on connecting commercial opportunity with trusted local partnerships, and helping businesses navigate the complexities of international trade. He has a particular interest in emerging and frontier markets.
This page reproduces the supplied Gateway Guide as searchable HTML, preserving its figures and stated dates. The downloadable PDF remains the source document; a new supplied report can update this page at the same URL.